RT's housing production survey has previously been conducted three times a year for members of the Building Construction Industry. The survey has examined the number of privately financed housing units started, completed and planned, which are implemented as founder contracts or negotiated contracts. Due to the exceptional economic situation, the survey has not been published after 2023.
Outside of RT's housing production survey are free-financed ownership housing production and subsidized rental housing production built by non-profit organizations, as well as housing production by companies not part of the building construction industry.
Housing production survey autumn 2023: Estimates of starts halved from the previous survey
Housing developers' estimates of their housing starts in 2023 fell to less than half in June compared to the winter survey, and in the autumn survey they have still almost halved since the summer.
The total number planned for 2023 is approximately 3 apartments. Estimates for starts in the first half of the year were less than 500 apartments in total, and around 1 apartments are planned for the rest of the year. The numbers are exceptionally low.
In 2024, companies are preparing to start construction of almost 7 apartments, but this requires the stock of apartments for sale to melt and demand to recover.
Similarly to the summer 2023 survey, as many as 97 percent of respondents felt that insufficient demand was a major impediment to the start of production. In addition, all respondents believed that expectations of rising interest rates were a major or at least somewhat major impediment.
Archive
2023
+Housing production survey summer 2023: Estimates of starts halved from the previous survey
Housing construction will slow down strongly this year. The background is the rise in interest rates and the cost of living in recent years, as well as the war in Ukraine
general uncertainty caused. Last year, the construction of almost 38 apartments started. The number of completed apartments will increase until the summer. According to the construction industry's March forecast, housing starts will fall by 000 this year. In light of the June housing production survey
the downside risks of the forecast will materialize and housing starts will remain at a clearly lower level than anticipated. Next year we will still stay
below the housing need.
Winter 2023: Production shrinks and is increasingly focused on growth centers
In the survey, apartment builders estimate that the housing market will start to recover during 2023. It still keeps expectations for housing production at a reasonable level. The view is supported by the low number of new apartments for sale.
However, the number of completed housing starts in 2022 was below what the companies estimated in RT's previous survey conducted in September-October. This indicates a sharp decrease in starts at the end of the year. The postponed projects will be started this year, if the economic situation allows it.
According to company estimates, we are now at the bottom of the economic cycle. The rate of increase in construction costs has clearly slowed down, but the cost increase is still by far the biggest obstacle to housing production. For a long time, insufficient demand has become a significant factor hindering production.
2022
+Autumn 2022: Housing starts will clearly decrease
The housing producers of Rakennusteollisuus RT's member companies estimate that they will start construction work on a total of nearly 12 apartment and townhouse apartments this year. About 000 percent of these are our own foundation contracting and 40 percent are negotiated contracts. Next year, the relationship between them will be reversed.
Own-build housing production will decrease by about a third this year compared to last year and the survey conducted in May.
The Helsinki region's share of production will decrease to 45 percent in 2022. Tampere's share will drop to 8 percent and Turku's will rise to 12 percent.
There were 5 new apartments for sale. The share of completed apartments for sale remained historically low at just under 000 apartments.
Spring 2022: Housing starts still at a high level
The housing producers of Rakennusteollisuus RT's member companies estimate that they will start construction work on a total of nearly 15 apartment and townhouse apartments this year. About half of these are own foundation contracts, i.e. owner-occupied apartments aimed at consumers, and half are negotiation contract sites, i.e. rental apartments for professional investors.
Estimates of self-build housing starts rose from last year, but fell clearly from the previous survey, which was conducted in February, before the war in Ukraine. Rental housing production will decrease slightly compared to the previous year, but will remain at the level of the estimate made before the war in Ukraine. The February survey was left unpublished because the situation was suddenly changed by the Russian invasion.
The Helsinki region's share is estimated to increase to 52 percent in 2022. Tampere's share will decrease to 14 percent, and Turku will remain at 12 percent. The growth triangle's share of housing production rises to 78 percentage points.
There were 4 new apartments for sale. The share of completed apartments for sale remained historically low at just under 400 apartments.
2021
+Housing production survey autumn 2021:
Housing starts still at a high level
The housing producers of Rakennusteollisuus RT's member companies estimate that they will start construction work on a total of 15 apartment and townhouse apartments this year. Of these, 300 are our own founding contracts, i.e. owner-occupied apartments aimed at consumers, and 8 are negotiation contract sites, i.e. rental apartments for professional investors.
Estimates of the current year's amount of freely financed housing production rose compared to the June survey. The companies estimate that their housing production will remain at the same high level next year as well. The focus will shift to in-house production. The production of rental apartments is decreasing.
The Helsinki region's share is estimated to drop to 45 percent in 2022. Tampere's share will rise to 20 percent and Turku's to 13 percent. Oulu's share drops to 8 percent, while the rest of Finland's share remains largely unchanged. The growth triangle's share of housing production rises to 78 percentage points.
New apartments were for sale 4 pieces. The share of completed apartments for sale fell to a low of 600 units, lower than the longer-term average
Housing production survey June 2021:
Housing starts at a high level, but leveling off
The housing producers of Rakennusteollisuus RT's member companies estimate that they will start construction work on a total of 14 apartment and townhouse apartments this year. Of these, 500 are own foundation contracts, i.e. owner-occupied apartments aimed at consumers, and 8 are negotiation contract sites, i.e. rental apartments for professional investors.
The plans for this year's housing starts are slightly more moderate than in the March survey. Production is estimated to be focused on the end of the year. Own-based production is expected to grow in the second half of the year, and investor demand is expected to remain unchanged compared to both the beginning of the year and last year.
All large regional municipalities are prepared for the growth of housing construction, with the exception of the regional municipalities of Kuopio and Jyväskylä. Helsinki's share decreases.
The number of apartments for sale is at a low level: 3 apartments, of which 400 were ready. The pre-booking rate increased from before and was now an average of 660 percent.
Housing production survey March 2021:
Apartment builders are preparing for a busy year
The housing producers of Rakennusteollisuus RT's member companies estimate that they will start construction work on a total of 16 apartment and terraced apartments this year. Of these, 200 are our own foundation contracts, i.e. owner-occupied apartments aimed at consumers, and 9 are negotiation contract sites, i.e. rental apartments for professional investors.
Estimates of privately financed housing production starts rose further from the estimates at the end of the year and reached the level before the corona crisis. In particular, consumer demand is expected to grow, but investor demand is also expected to increase. We are preparing for the growth of housing construction in all regions and especially outside of Helsinki region.
The number of apartments for sale is at a low level: 4 apartments, of which 000 were ready. The pre-booking rate decreased slightly from before and was now an average of 760 percent.
2020
+Housing production survey November 2020:
Housing construction survived the spring drop
The housing producers of Rakennusteollisuus RT's member companies estimate that they will start construction work on a total of 11 apartment and terraced apartments this year. Almost half of these are our own foundation contracts, i.e. owner-occupied apartments aimed at consumers, and a good half of them are negotiation contract properties, i.e. rental apartments for professional investors.
The start of the corona crisis froze the housing market for a while in the spring, but throughout the year, the number of starts has remained at a surprisingly good level. On the other hand, compared to the January survey, the number of planned starts decreased by more than 3 apartments. Housing starts are estimated to have decreased mainly as a result of weakening consumer demand, while investor demand has contracted less.
Companies have adapted their production to the uncertain situation. The number of apartments for sale is at a low level, 4 apartments, of which 600 are ready. Advance booking rates are high, at an average of 800 percent.
Housing production survey August 2020:
Housing production has recovered from the spring's sudden stop
The housing producers of Rakennusteollisuus RT's member companies estimate that they will start construction work on a total of more than 13 apartment and townhouse apartments this year. A good half of these are our own foundation contracts, i.e. owner-occupied apartments aimed at consumers, and the other half are negotiation contract properties, i.e. rental apartments for professional investors.
The number of planned housing starts increased by about a thousand apartments in the August survey compared to the previous survey conducted in May, when the plans fell by as much as a quarter compared to expectations before the corona crisis. Consumer demand in particular has strengthened since May.
Companies have adapted their production to the uncertain situation. The number of apartments for sale is at a low level, 5 apartments, of which 204 are ready. Advance booking rates are high, at an average of 900 percent.
Housing production survey May 2020:
The corona crisis split the beginning of the year in half
The housing producers of Rakennusteollisuus RT's member companies estimate that this year they will start construction work on a total of 12 townhouses and apartment buildings. Of these, 000 are our own foundation contracts, i.e. owner-occupied apartments aimed at consumers, and about 6 are negotiation contract sites, i.e. rental apartments for investors.
According to the statistics, the number of starts in January-March was even higher than in recent years. However, a quick turnaround happened by April due to the corona crisis. The number of apartment starts planned for 2020 decreased by more than 4 apartments in the May survey, i.e. by a fifth compared to the January survey. The decrease is due to a decrease in items aimed at both consumers and investors.
Apartment builders have adjusted their operations. The number of apartments for sale in May was a moderate 4, of which 866 apartments were completed.
Jouni Vihmo
Chief Economist
jouni.vihmo@rt.fi + 358 50 520 1636Confederation of Finnish Construction Industries (CFCI)