In HVAC wholesale, the second quarter of the year (Q2) was 17,5% better than the corresponding period of the previous year, which was also good in terms of sales. Cumulatively, we are now almost 18% ahead of the previous year. The increase in prices can be seen in these figures, but there has also been an increase in volume.
Even though this year has also been a period of strong growth for the entire construction sector, the forecasts are pretty much unanimously pointing to a downward trend for the end of the year and next year. On the other hand, it must be stated that in recent years the forecasts have often been more gloomy than realized and the construction cycles have remained good and at a growth rate. However, it is likely that the strong growth will now turn to some degree of decline. Uncertainty brings with it caution, and the confidence indices for both consumers and construction have clearly fallen. An example is consumers' home purchase intentions, which have come down quickly and sharply this year. The declining license development also reflects this weakening of confidence.
Overall, however, this year will clearly be a positive year for building technology, even if there is a slowdown in the end of the year. The year has started so strongly and the new and already started projects are still paying off well.
Housing construction has been the driving force for a long time, but now it seems that changes are coming to the driving force. According to Rakennusteollisuus ry's estimate, housing construction will turn negative, but the construction of business premises is expected to pick up and also keep growing.
Repair construction will also remain at a high level, and the incentives for energy efficiency and the green transition will support this activity. It is also positive that the prices of raw materials are showing signs of calming down and the availability of components has improved. However, the world situation is so exceptional and constantly surprising that we dare not draw a clear and very far-reaching trend. Predictability is also weak here. Self-renovation of apartments seems to have subsided. This is partially explained by the removal of corona restrictions and e.g. increase in travel.
All in all, the outlook for this year is still reasonably good, if uncertain. And even if there is a decrease at the end of the year or next year, we are still at a very high level in the current starting situation.
Additional information:
Ilkka Salo, CEO,
Building Services Industries and Trade
Tel. 040 847 9907 | ilkka.salo@talteka.fi