The construction sector is still on hold for a turnaround. However, with the exception of residential construction, moderate growth is being observed.
In the first quarter of 2026, HVAC wholesale sales were in the positive territory for the first time in a long time. Heating and water sales were up six percent compared to the same period the previous year, driven by non-residential construction and renovation construction. Air sales decreased by two percent from a year ago, reflecting the sluggishness of new construction starts. Overall, HVAC wholesale sales ended up with moderate growth of approximately 4,4%. (Figure 1)
From contraction to slow growth phase
The forecast published by the Finnish Construction Industry Association (RT) in March (Figure 2) states that the expected growth in construction did not materialize last year and at the beginning of this year. Last year, construction decreased by 1,5 percent, and this year, at most, the same amount of growth is expected. The likelihood of a turnaround has decreased due to the uncertain conflict in the Middle East.
According to the forecast, the profitability equation in housing production is still broken. Data centers will increase starts strongly at least this year, and public investments in healthcare, education and defense-related premises will increase. Industrial construction is predicted to grow next year. “These forecasters would also indicate that the direction of building services will continue to be moderately upward this year,” says Talteka’s CEO Matti Loukkola.
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Matti Loukkola
CEO
matti.loukkola@talteka.fi +358 50 346 2823Finnish Building Services Industries and Trade (Talteka)